{"id":4512,"date":"2026-10-11T15:15:23","date_gmt":"2026-10-11T15:15:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/business-endeavours.pt\/making-better-decisions-from-opinions-to-informed-decisions\/"},"modified":"2026-10-11T16:00:11","modified_gmt":"2026-10-11T16:00:11","slug":"making-better-decisions-from-opinions-to-informed-decisions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/business-endeavours.pt\/en\/making-better-decisions-from-opinions-to-informed-decisions\/","title":{"rendered":"Making Better Decisions: From Opinions to Informed Decisions"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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In a world that rewards quick answers, leadership requires something even more difficult: knowing how to ask questions, acknowledging what we don\u2019t know, and creating space to better understand and make better decisions.<\/h6>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\nWhen Speaking Becomes More Important Than Understanding\n<\/h4>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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We live in an age in which everyone seems to have an opinion about everything.<\/p>

Information is permanently available. News unfolds continuously, social media amplifies commentary, and organisations increasingly demand faster answers. In this environment, speaking with confidence can easily be mistaken for knowing; responding quickly can be confused with making good decisions. <\/p>

But there is a fundamental difference between having an opinion and understanding a problem.<\/p>

An opinion can be formed in seconds. Understanding takes time: gathering information, confronting different perspectives, identifying assumptions, and accepting that the first explanation is not always the correct one. <\/p>

The problem is not having opinions, nor is it making quick decisions when circumstances require it. The problem arises when speed becomes a measure of competence and confidence becomes a substitute for knowledge. <\/p>

In organisations, this confusion can have significant consequences. A perception becomes a conclusion; a conclusion becomes a decision; and a decision becomes a strategy that mobilises resources, people and expectations \u2014 sometimes without its underlying assumptions ever having been properly examined. <\/p>

The risk is not simply not knowing. The greater risk is believing that we already understand enough. <\/p>

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\nThe Lesson of Socrates: Recognising the Limits of Knowledge\n\n<\/h4>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The philosophy of S\u00f3crates<\/a> provides a useful starting point for thinking about this issue.<\/p>

The expression frequently associated with the philosopher \u2014 \u201cI know that I know nothing\u201d \u2014 summarises an attitude of intellectual humility: recognising the limits of one\u2019s own knowledge and refusing to confuse conviction with truth.<\/p>

It is important, however, to understand that this formulation is a popular synthesis of Socratic thought, rather than a literal quotation appearing in this form in Plato\u2019s dialogues. In the Apology, Socrates<\/a> describes his wisdom in relation to recognising the limits of his knowledge and the fact that he does not know what he does not know. <\/p>

This distinction is not merely academic. The value of the idea lies in the way of thinking it encourages: questioning what we believe we know rather than simply looking for arguments that confirm what we already believe.<\/strong><\/p>

For a leader, this attitude does not mean constantly hesitating or avoiding the responsibility to make decisions. It means distinguishing between what is known, what is probable, and what still needs to be investigated.<\/strong> <\/p>

Intellectual humility is not a lack of confidence. It is the ability to calibrate confidence to the quality of the evidence. <\/strong><\/p>

Perhaps this is precisely what makes the Socratic attitude so relevant to contemporary management: within an organisation, recognising uncertainty early enough can prevent it from becoming a costly mistake.<\/p>

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\nThe Illusion of Knowledge in Organisations\n<\/h4>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Research into decision-making identifies several mechanisms that can undermine the actual quality of judgement.<\/p>

One of them is overconfidence: believing that our knowledge, predictions or decisions are more certain than the evidence allows. The study \u201cOverconfidence at work: Does overconfidence survive the checks and balances of organizational life?<\/a>\u201d, published in Research in Organizational Behavior, examines how overconfidence can manifest itself and affect organisations. <\/p>

Another mechanism is bias \u2014 the tendency to interpret information in ways that favour a decision we are already inclined to make. The study \u201cWhen Deciding Creates Overconfidence<\/a>\u201d, published in 2025 in Judgment and Decision Making, explored how the decision-making process itself can distort the evaluation of information and increase confidence in a choice, even when that confidence is not justified. <\/p>

These mechanisms do not mean that leaders are necessarily irrational, nor that experience has no value.<\/p>

The possibility that a leader\u2019s decisions may be affected by mechanisms such as overconfidence, bias and other cognitive limitations means that experience, authority and conviction do not eliminate the limits of human judgement.Being aware of this possibility increases the likelihood that our decisions will be informed and grounded in actual knowledge. <\/p>

In an organisational context, these limitations can become particularly relevant when:<\/p>